The 7 Questions Investors Are Asking Right Now (And What History Says)

By Chase Fowler, COO / Financial Advisor (LinkedIn)

We address key investment questions on inflation, AI, and market trends.

If you knew on January 1, 2020, that the next six years would include a pandemic, 9%+ inflation, multiple wars and the highest U.S. tariffs in decades, you might have avoided stocks altogether. Yet despite those challenges, the S&P 500 rose more than 122%. It's a powerful reminder that markets can overcome even the most unexpected events, rewarding investors who stay focused on the long term.

See the top seven questions we're getting from investors today, and solid data with answers.

1. Should I Be Worried About Oil Prices?

Impact of geopolitical oil supply disruptions on S&P 500 Index Returns (1990-2024): Initial declines often recover over time, with positive returns apparent within two months, one year and two years despite temporary market volatility.

The conflict involving Iran is a reminder that the global economy still depends heavily on oil. While geopolitical tensions can spark market volatility, history shows that when supply disruptions are temporary, market declines are often short-lived. Since the First Gulf War, equities have fallen an average of just 1% in the two weeks following major oil shocks, but gained 12% one year later and more than 32% over the next two years. The lesson: markets tend to look past the immediate headlines and focus on the path to recovery.

The U.S. leads as the top global oil and gas producer, contributing 22% to the world's total production, showcasing enhanced energy security through technological advancements.

Many investors may be surprised to learn that the U.S. is now the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. As a result, the economy is less vulnerable to energy shocks than it was 20 years ago. While the conflict in Iran could create further volatility, history suggests that unless supply disruptions are prolonged, oil prices—and markets—tend to stabilize over time.

2. Is AI Becoming Another Dot-Com Bubble?

AI investment has surged beyond the levels of the dot-com era, marking a significant phase of advanced innovation. The graph illustrates how AI's focus on leveraging existing data distinguishes it from the hardware-centric internet boom of the 1990s.

Tech companies have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in AI, raising questions about whether the boom could end like the dot-com crash. While an AI downturn is possible, we believe today’s environment differs from the late 1990s. The internet era focused on building hardware and connectivity, while AI is centered on unlocking value from existing data and knowledge.

Unlike many dot-com companies, today’s tech leaders generate strong earnings, maintain healthy balance sheets, and hold significant cash reserves. With valuations varying widely across the sector, we believe disciplined fundamental research is essential to help identify the companies most likely to deliver lasting returns.

AI stock gains are backed by solid earnings growth, contrasting with the dot-com bubble where stock prices far outpaced profits, suggesting a more stable foundation for long-term opportunities.

The rise in AI stocks has sparked comparisons to the dot-com era, but today’s AI leaders are supported by strong earnings, cash flow, and financial strength. While valuation risks exist, the fundamentals remain solid, suggesting it is too early to let concerns about a potential bubble overshadow the long-term opportunities AI may create. Over time, a company’s stock price tends to follow the direction of its earnings. While market sentiment can drive short-term volatility, long-term returns are ultimately driven by business performance.

3. Will the Midterm Elections Hurt the Market?

Markets maintain robust performance with double-digit returns on average, regardless of whether Congress is unified, split, or the President is from a different party, demonstrating the limited long-term impact of government control on investment returns.

While elections can create uncertainty and short-term market volatility, history shows they have had little impact on long-term investment returns. Markets have performed well under both unified and divided governments. Rather than reacting to political events, investors are typically better served by staying focused on their long-term goals and the fundamental drivers of company value.

4. Is This Market Too Expensive?

Historical data reveals significant market rebounds after midterm elections, with the S&P 500 showing an average one-year return of 15.4%, highlighting the influence of election-related uncertainty on market performance.

Historically, the party in power often loses seats in midterm elections, creating uncertainty and market volatility ahead of Election Day. However, markets have typically rebounded after the results are known, with the average return in the following year reaching 15.4%—about twice the average of other years. While elections can influence sentiment, they are just one of many factors affecting markets.

5. Has Inflation Really Been Defeated?

For many families, inflation does not feel "over." College tuition continues to rise, home renovation projects often cost more than expected, and everyday expenses remain well above where they were just a few years ago.

Inflation Drivers: Energy Prices Lead the Increase in Consumer Price Index Components, While Used Cars and Medical Commodities Provide Relief.

The chart above helps explain why. Inflation is not driven by a single factor. Instead, it reflects changes across many areas of the economy, including energy, housing, food, transportation, healthcare, and consumer goods. Today, energy prices are making the largest contribution to inflation, while some categories, such as used cars and certain medical commodities, are helping offset price pressures. The good news is that overall inflation has slowed significantly from its recent peak, but it remains above the long-term level policymakers typically target.

For investors, the lesson is that inflation is likely to remain uneven across different parts of the economy. Historically, businesses with strong balance sheets, durable competitive advantages, and the ability to navigate higher input costs during inflationary environments will still succeed over the long term. Rather than trying to predict each inflation report, long-term investors are often better served by focusing on high-quality companies that can adapt to changing economic conditions.

6. Should I Wait for a Better Time to Invest?

Market corrections are a regular part of investing, with the S&P 500 experiencing declines of 10% or more approximately every 18 months since 1954. Despite these fluctuations, stocks have shown positive annual returns in most years.

Market volatility can be unsettling, but periodic declines are a normal part of investing. Since 1954, market corrections of 10% or more have occurred roughly every 18 months, yet stocks have delivered positive annual returns in most years.

While 2026 has been marked by uncertainty—from economic data and geopolitical tensions to developments in AI—history shows that markets tend to recover as earnings grow and investors refocus on long-term opportunities.

7. What Does History Say About Staying Invested?

The S&P 500's resilience is highlighted in this chart, demonstrating a significant 122% rise from 2020 to 2026 despite the challenges of a pandemic, high inflation, multiple wars, and increased tariffs. Historical data from 1987 onward shows markets repeatedly overcoming crises, underscoring the benefits of long-term investment strategies.

If you knew on January 1, 2020, that the next six years would include a pandemic, 9%+ inflation, multiple wars and the highest U.S. tariffs in decades, you might have avoided stocks altogether. Yet despite those challenges, the S&P 500 rose more than 122%. It's a powerful reminder that markets can overcome even the most unexpected events and often reward investors who stay focused on the long term.

As investors look ahead, the key may be to remain focused on what can be controlled rather than reacting to every headline. Energy markets will evolve, artificial intelligence will continue to reshape industries, political cycles will come and go, and periods of volatility will remain a natural part of investing.

Yet throughout history, those who maintained a disciplined, long-term perspective have been positioned to benefit from the enduring forces of innovation, economic growth, and human ingenuity. While uncertainty is inevitable, opportunity often emerges from it—and staying committed to a well-defined investment strategy can help turn today’s challenges into tomorrow’s successes.