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How will conflict and elections impact stock performance?

Updated: May 16

By Adam Day, Financial Advisor




LOOK BACK: Middle Eastern escalations, blips but consistency of the market over time

With a winning first quarter to 2024, April saw tensions rise in the Middle East once more. Since 1927, the chart on the S&P 500 Index shows the response during 34 wars and conflicts and it consistently went up.


  • April 1st, two Iranian generals killed in a strike on a consulate in Syria.

  • Iran blamed Israel for the attack and promised retaliation, which launched on April 14th.

  • 300+ drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles launched by Iran was thwarted by Israel’s aerial defense system.

  • The market prices in a level of uncertainty, and often there is a flight from riskier assets. This is in part why in April, we think there was a pullback in stocks and a rise in bond yields. Adding to the escalation in the Middle East was further data on the stickiness of inflation, and how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher.

 

TRENDS YOU NEED TO KNOW: So it's an election year, are we going to lose it all with the party that wins?

Well, some people feel like it. Don’t mix your consumer confidence with choosing to invest, based on your party affiliation.


Don’t mix your political opinions with investing. Sitting this one out because your “team” didn’t win is historically a bad move.


YOUR GAME CHANGING QUESTION ANSWERED: “I just paid my taxes… What can I do this year to help lower my taxes for next year?”

Do a quick check of if you’ve asked all the basics with your financial advisor and tax advisor. Here are a few ideas to start with.

 

THE LATEST: Ascend Advisory named to 2024 Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Management Teams (read the PR release).

2024 Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Management Teams: Awarded January 2024; Data compiled by SHOOK Research LLC based on the time period from 3/31/22 - 3/31/23 (Source: Forbes.com).  Fee paid for use of marketing materials.

 

The Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Management Teams rating algorithm is based on the previous year’s industry experience, interviews, compliance records, assets under management, revenue and other criteria by SHOOK Research, LLC. Investment performance is not a criterion. Self-completed survey was used for rating. This rating is not related to the quality of the investment advice and based solely on the disclosed criteria. Fee paid for use of logo.


The S&P 500 Index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in in the index proportionate to its market value.

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